Threat Modeling Insider – October 2025

Threat Modeling Insider Newsletter

48th Edition – October 2025

Welcome!

Welcome to this month’s edition of Threat Modeling Insider! In our featured guest article, Improving your STRIDE for effective Threat Modeling with PWNISMS, Jeremiah Grossman explains how the Epoch Theory provides a strategic framework for understanding cybersecurity as a dynamic landscape where adversaries and defenders continuously adapt, with each technological era characterized by distinct approaches to attack and defense.

Meanwhile, on the Toreon blog, Asma Oualmakran highlights the expanding scope to the software supply chain, pointing to how open-source packages are often left out of the threat model. 

There’s plenty of other actionable insight ahead, so settle in and let’s get started!

Threat Modeling Insider edition

Welcome!

Welcome to this month’s edition of Threat Modeling Insider! In our featured guest article, Improving your STRIDE for effective Threat Modeling with PWNISMS, Jeremiah Grossman explains how the Epoch Theory provides a strategic framework for understanding cybersecurity as a dynamic landscape where adversaries and defenders continuously adapt, with each technological era characterized by distinct approaches to attack and defense.

Meanwhile, on the Toreon blog, Asma Oualmakran highlights the expanding scope to the software supply chain, pointing to how open-source packages are often left out of the threat model. 

There’s plenty of other actionable insight ahead, so settle in and let’s get started!

On this edition

Tips & tricks
Two Scenario Threat Modeling

Training update
An update on our training sessions.

Guest article

Improving your STRIDE for effective Threat Modeling with PWNISMS

Written by Abhay Bhargav, CEO at we45

I’ve been Threat Modeling for about 15 years now professionally. I’ve developed several tools in this space, from “Threat-Model-as-Code” tools to AI-native Threat Modeling Tools. My team and I run over 400 threat models annually for customers across sizes, security maturity and industry verticals. There is one immeasurable truth when I have done threat modeling overall this time, and that is:

Identifying Threats is perhaps the hardest part of performing an effective Threat Model.

Identifying Threats typically comes in when you have decomposed the system, identified the security objectives, broken down the sensitive information assets, stored, processed and transmitted by the system. “Identifying Threats” is the meat and potatoes of Threat Modeling. As the name suggests, it is the proverbial protagonist of the Threat Modeling story. However, this can be very hard to get right. There are reasons for this:

1. Identifying threats is an intellectually intense and technologically intense activity.

2. It’s a high skill activity. Which means that anyone who identifies threats and who is good at identifying threats is going to be somebody who has a detailed understanding of not only the system but also an extremely good understanding of the technology and the technology security landscape of the system that they are threat modeling.

3. Identifying threats doesn’t always correlate with the skill that somebody has in terms of just the technology itself. For example, your architects and senior developers might have a great understanding of the technology that they’re dealing with, but may still not have the depth to be able to understand the security impacts, implications, and problems that come with that piece of technology or come with that system that they are dealing with itself.

4. Today’s systems have gotten increasingly more complex, which means that you are not dealing with simple server-side applications or systems anymore. You are dealing with a multi-tiered, multi-layered, and multi-component application that is talking to several hundreds, if not thousands, of other services internally and externally, with a combination of both dedicated and shared services on the cloud, in a hybrid environment, and so on. This increases the complexity of the very act of “identifying threats”, which is essential to get right when you do a Threat Model

Adversary Classification

This brings with it several issues that I am sure many of you have dealt with if you have performed a threat model.

1. You deal with inconsistent threat modeling. This is due to the skill issue. You can have a situation where a team may be producing great, deep threat models because they are

skilled at identifying threats and in other situations, you might have terribly generic and dare I say, useless threat models that are of no good to anyone.

2. This could be worse. You might be dealing with a wildly incomplete Threat Model masquerading as a complete one. It might be missing entire categories of risks based on components, data flows and more. This is dangerous because it creates a false sense of security and coverage.

3. This inherently comes with a scaling problem. This creates an issue where Threat Models NEED to be executed by the Security Team or Security Architecture Team. They are likely to be a small team that is inundated with Threat Modeling requests from hundreds of teams.

Its not as if there are no techniques to help you solve this. There are a few well known techniques like STRIDE (Spoofing, Tampering, Repudiation, Information Disclosure, Denial of Service and Elevation Privilege) and the privacy-oriented Threat Modeling technique, LINDDUN (Linking, Identifying, Non-repudiation, Detecting, Data Disclosure, Unawareness and Non-compliance)

 

These help. For sure. In fact, earlier on in my career, I used to really spend a good deal of time using STRIDE as the primary technique to coax my mind to think about threat scenarios by category of STRIDE. This helped me greatly mature as a security professional. But as time passed and systems got more complex. I started to feel that this became inadequate. I felt that STRIDE addressed the “categories” of threats by classifying them into certain categories. But, I felt that there was really not a good way to help me “find them” in the first place. And by “finding them” I mean, allow me to enumerate them by domain or by examining and breaking down a given system.

This is when I came up with PWNISMS. It’s been around 3 years now since I came up with this and I have used this for over 700+ Threat Models to great effect. In fact, I have seen that this methodology helps me perform better Threat Models using AI and Large Language Models (LLMs). The reason I came up with this, over many other threat enumeration libraries is that it fits with the following parameters:

1. Its full-stack. It considers threats across all layers of an application or system stack.

2. It provides a great deal of domain coverage across multiple typically under-represented threat domains like Monitoring and Supply-Chain, which we as humans are typically bad at thinking about.

3. It fits well with STRIDE and can be used without STRIDE.

4. It works really well for AI-generated Threat Modeling.

PWNISMS Threat Modeling Pyramid
PWNISMS Threat Modeling Pyramid

PWNISMS is a technique that helps you identify threats based on the system that you’re dealing with. I especially find it useful to work with PWNISMS because it helps me identify threats in complex, massive systems in a structured and sequential manner. It also helps you with the “best of both worlds” effect. You can use this in conjunction with or as a substitute for STRIDE. Basically, PWNISMS is a technique that you can use to identify Threat scenarios by domain/system. This is how the mnemonic breaks down:

 

P is for Product – Specifically denotes Product related Threats – Things like Business Logic Flaws, Access Control issues with the core application(s), other AppSec Issues relating to “Product Functionality” per sé. You can use STRIDE to identify product specific threats.

W is for Workload – Specifically denotes threats that relate to the workloads you’re running your system on or that your system relies on. Could be Kubernetes, Functions-as-a-Service, Cloud VPS, Databases, Queue Systems, etc.

N is for Network – Denotes threats against the network for the system you’re threat modeling. This could relate to encryption threat scenarios on the network or internal network threats or configuration issues related to network security and more. Again, use STRIDE to help you dive into this category.

I is for IAM – Every system today is exceedingly reliant on complex IAM systems. It could be cloud, on-prem or hybrid, but IAM itself is a pretty massive category of threat scenarios that you could identify across all the systems that you’re dealing with. This is one of those “composite” categories that might see some overlap across other categories but I see a good deal of value in calling this out in its own category.

S is for Secrets – Today’s systems are ridden with secrets and secret sprawl. You’re dealing with a plethora of API Tokens, OAuth Tokens, Encryption Keys, Service Account Credentials, Certificates and more. Secrets are not only an important consideration to look at across the system but forms an important aspect of identifying threats to the system. Secrets are stepping stones to the rest of the system and its essential to consider them as a key piece of your threat modeling methodology.

M is for Monitoring – This is one of the most forgotten and ignored aspects of any Threat Model. But the ROI on modeling threats here is incredible. Threats that either stem from monitoring or lack thereof are very important to be considered especially while formulating a threat model. These become keystone architecture and design considerations that you must get right at the earliest, or risk dealing with a lot of potential issues downstream right from lack of security telemetry for threat hunting and so on, to exposure of sensitive information through monitoring systems.

S is for Supply-Chain – Supply-Chain threats have ballooned over time in importance. It seems to be Issue number 1 for several teams. With AI, this is only going to get worse. This category serves as a way to gather your supply-chain inventory and identify threats against that inventory. A wildly useful category when you’re identifying threats.

 

I suggest that you give PWNISMS a shot the next time you’re threat modeling. It has helped me immensely. I am sure it will help you solve one of the biggest issues with Threat Modeling. Finding Security Threats.

Upcoming Webinar

Event Title: What is Threat Modeling

Date & Time: November 20, 2025 · 10:00 AM PT | 1:00 PM ET

Description:
Join Robert Hurlbut, Principal Product Security Architect at Toreon, for a 45-minute interactive webinar that demystifies what Threat Modeling is — and how it helps teams build security in early.
You’ll learn the 4 stages of Threat Modeling (DICE – Diagram, Identify, Counter, Evaluate) and see the process in action through a short hands-on exercise.

🎓 All participants will receive free access to Toreon’s Intro to Threat Modeling course — a great way to continue learning after the session.

Handpicked for you

Toreon Blog: Threat modeling: Expanding scope to the software supply chain

The average modern application contains a significant number of open-source packages; in some cases up to 90%1 Despite their significance they are often left out of the threat model leaving a gap in necessary mitigations and risk analysis.



Curated Content

The Epoch Theory of Cybersecurity: Understanding Adversary Evolution

The Epoch Theory provides a strategic framework for understanding cybersecurity as a dynamic landscape where adversaries and defenders continuously adapt, with each technological era characterized by distinct approaches to attack and defense.

Key takeaways are:

  • Cybersecurity evolves through four distinct epochs (Manual, Repeatable, Scale, Complexity), each representing increasing sophistication in attack and defense strategies.
  • Adversaries are sentient actors driven by economic incentives, motivations, and rational self-interest, not random threats.
  • Successful cybersecurity requires anticipating and shaping adversary behavior by understanding their psychographics and making attacks increasingly costly and risky.

Economic Threat Modeling: Transforming CISOs into Revenue Protection Officers

Economic threat modeling is a strategic approach that helps Chief Information Security Officers (CISOs) protect their organization’s revenue streams by understanding and mitigating potential economic threats through a financially responsible risk management process.
 

Key takeaways are:

  • Shift from compliance-based security to a threat-informed defense that directly links security investments to revenue protection
  • Implement a four-question framework to identify, assess, and mitigate threats that could disrupt business operations
  • Collaborate across organizational departments to create a comprehensive understanding of economic vulnerabilities

TIPS & TRICKS

Two Scenario Threat Modeling

Jacob Kaplan-Moss has this cool, simple threat modeling trick. Instead of getting bogged down in everything, you just focus on two key scenarios to find and fix risks. It basically chops the huge, complicated job of threat modeling into a quick, story-based exercise that anyone can manage. Easy peasy! 👍

Our trainings & events for 2025

Book a seat in our upcoming trainings & events

Advanced Whiteboard Hacking a.k.a. Hands-on Threat Modeling, in-person, OWASP Global AppSec, Washington DC

4-5 November 2025

Threat Modeling Practitioner training, hybrid online, hosted by DPI 

Cohort starting on 24 November

Half Day Workshop Threat Modeling with AI, in-person, German OWASP Day

25 November 2025

Advanced Whiteboard Hacking a.k.a. Hands-on Threat Modeling, in-person, OWASP Global AppSec, Washington DC

4-5 November 2025

Threat Modeling Practitioner training, hybrid online, hosted by DPI 

Cohort starting on 24 November

Half Day Workshop Threat Modeling with AI, in-person, German OWASP Day

25 November 2025

Advanced Whiteboard Hacking a.k.a. Hands-on Threat Modeling, in-person, Blue Team Con, Chicago, USA

1-2 December 2025

1 Day Workshop Threat Modeling with AI, in-person, Belgium, OWASP BeNeLux

3 December 2025

Half day Workshop Threat Modeling with AI, in-person, CodeMash Conference, Ohio

12-16 January 2026

Advanced Whiteboard Hacking a.k.a. Hands-on Threat Modeling, in-person, Blue Team Con, Chicago, USA

1-2 December 2025

1 Day Workshop Threat Modeling with AI, in-person, Belgium, OWASP BeNeLux

3 December 2025

Half day Workshop Threat Modeling with AI, in-person, CodeMash Conference, Ohio

12-16 January 2026

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